Assessing housing need
3.9 The Economic Strategy also highlights that the lack of availability and affordability of housing is a key issue affecting Bath and North East Somerset and that this also impacts on the performance of our economy and wider sustainability issues. In order to underpin the Local Plan an assessment of housing needs across the District has been undertaken. This study is known as a Local Housing Needs Assessment (LHNA). The context for assessing local housing needs is also set by the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF).
3.10 The overall need for housing in B&NES is for 725 new homes per annum, or 14,500 over the twenty-year Local Plan period. This figure is derived from calculations by the government, which is based on population and household projections which are then adjusted upwards to take account of the affordability (or unaffordability) of housing in B&NES. This is known as the ‘standard method’ housing figure. The standard method figure can vary year on year, if the level of housing affordability changes (if house prices rise or fall, or incomes change, for example). However, it is unlikely to change significantly when new figures are published next year.
3.11 The standard method housing figure is taken as the advisory starting point for determining local housing need and for establishing the housing requirement (amount of housing to be planned for) in the Local Plan. The Council appointed consultants to undertake a local assessment of housing need, which as required by government is also based on population and household projections and take account of market signals or affordability. Their assessment identifies a similar, albeit slightly lower, level of overall housing need.
Projected growth
3.12 Importantly their analysis shows that a significant proportion of projected population growth, and therefore overall need for new housing, is comprised of projected growth in the student population.
3.13 The accommodation requirements of students are different to those of the rest of the population and for those aged 18-23 (primarily undergraduate students) are typically provided through student bedspaces e.g. in the form of Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA). Given the significant student population growth it is proposed that the associated accommodation requirements are considered separately from general housing need in this Local Plan. The provision of additional student bedspaces in PBSA would reduce the amount of general needs housing required (see paragraph 3.17 below).
3.14 Based on population projections the LHNA suggests a growth in the student population aged 18-23 of around 7,300. This would equate to around 370 student bedspaces per year. Although it is appropriate to establish the overall student housing need using the projected growth of student population based on long term trends, it is also important to ensure alignment with the future growth aspirations of the University of Bath and Bath Spa University. The Council continues to work with both universities to understand their projected growth aspirations, however they are only able to provide projections up to 2030, leading to significant uncertainly during the second half of the Plan period. A set of scenarios based on different levels of growth are set out in the Student Accommodation Topic Paper. Visit our library of Local Plan Options supporting documents to learn more.
3.15 The LHNA also provides more detail on the size, type and tenure of housing that is needed, including information on the need for affordable housing (key findings are summarised in paragraphs 3.16 to 3.19 below).
3.16 The plan period runs from 2022 to 2042. Some additional housing is already planned to be built on sites with planning permission and sites allocated for development in the current adopted Local Plan which runs until 2029. Sites with planning permission or allocated are known as existing commitments. Homes to be delivered on the existing commitments are deducted from the housing requirement to calculate the number of homes required to be planned for on new sites through the Local Plan. The spatial distribution of homes to be provided by existing commitments is illustrated in the map below.
Figure 3: Map showing existing housing commitments
Balancing housing need and site supply
3.17 In preparing a Local Plan, we are able to make an allowance for housing likely to be delivered on small windfall sites, that is sites that will provide less than ten homes and will be granted planning permission without being specifically allocated for development. A windfall allowance over the plan period has therefore been calculated. Up until 2029 and for the remainder of the adopted plan period, the existing figures from the published housing trajectory have been used. Beyond 2029 a realistic and relatively cautious approach has been taken, based on past rates of delivery. Small sites permissions have reduced over the past two years, and therefore this is taken into account in the future allowance. The small windfall sites allowance will be kept under review, in light of annual monitoring of housing delivery and permissions. Further detail is set out in the Housing Topic Paper. Visit our library of Local Plan Options supporting documents to learn more.
| Description | Number of dwellings |
|---|---|
| Overall housing requirement | 14,500 |
| Existing residential commitments (including small sites with planning permission) | 6,240 |
| Expected small windfall sites (excluding small sites with planning permission) | 2,080 |
| Sub-total of sites | 8,320 |
| Housing to be planned for on new allocations (includes accommodation for students, which needs separate consideration) | 6180 |
The types of housing we need
3.18 It is not just important to plan for the overall amount of housing that is needed. The LHNA identifies that there is a significant need for housing that is more affordable in Bath and North East Somerset, and this corroborates evidence underpinning the council’s Economic Strategy. Affordable Housing, as set out in the NPPF, has two main components:
- Housing that is needed for households that cannot afford market rents or prices to purchase
- Households that can afford market rents but aspire to own their own home but cannot afford to do so.
Based on both of those components, the total need for Affordable Housing in Bath and North East Somerset is very significant, and represents 77% of total housing need in the city of Bath, and 31% of total housing need in the rest of the District.
3.19 Typically, the need for Affordable Housing of those that cannot afford to rent or buy will be met by either social rented accommodation or shared ownership homes (where the household buys a part share in the property). For those that can afford market rent, but aspire to home ownership, their need is typically met by either shared ownership or a discounted market housing product, such as First Homes (homes available to first time buyers at a discounted price). The LHNA provides more detailed information around the different types of affordable housing need in both Bath and the rest of the district. This shows that in Bath 36% of overall future housing need is from those households that cannot afford to rent or buy and 41% is from those that can afford to rent but aspire to home ownership. The equivalent proportions for the rest of the District are 21% and 11% respectively.
3.20 With regard to the type and size of housing that is required across the District, the LHNA provides a useful information split between the city of Bath and the rest of Bath and North East Somerset. More detailed information for specific places or parishes can be gathered through Local Housing Needs Surveys. The LHNA identifies that the largest proportion of housing is needed for 3-bed houses (around 50% of overall housing need) in both the city and the rest of the district. There is also significant need for smaller dwellings, 1- and 2-bed flats and houses, (more than 26% of overall housing need) for smaller households (for example, younger people, and older people looking to downsize).
3.21 Finally, the LHNA also provides useful information on the significant need for more specialist housing for older people, both market and affordable housing, as well as information on needs of those with particular accessibility requirements.
Need arising from neighbouring authorities
3.22 The NPPF requires authorities to respond to and assist in meeting the unmet needs arising in neighbouring areas, as requested through the Duty to Co-operate, where it is reasonable to do so, having regard to the principles of sustainable development. In responding to this requirement, the capacity of Bath and North East Somerset to accommodate its own housing need, in a sustainable manner, is highly relevant.
3.23 At this stage, and with the exception of Bristol City Council, the neighbouring authorities to Bath and North East Somerset have confirmed they are seeking to meet their objectively assessed need for housing within their respective administrative areas. As such, there is no request to help meet any of their unmet need. Through the preparation of its Publication Draft Local Plan, Bristol City Council have confirmed that they have capacity to provide around 1,925 dwellings per annum, or 34,650 over their Local Plan period. This capacity does not fully meet their locally-derived housing need (2,503 per annum or 45,054 over the Local Plan period). Bristol City Council have therefore formally written to B&NES Council and their other neighbouring authorities of North Somerset Council and South Gloucestershire Council, to request that we explore whether we could accommodate a proportion of their unmet locally-derived need of 10,404 homes. We will carefully consider our response to this request through the preparation of our Local Plan.